The Flaw of Averages

Sam L. Savage (Autor) Lançado em abril de 2012 Edição em Inglês
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    The Flaw of Averages

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    • Data de lançamento abril 2012
      Editor John Wiley & Sons

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    • A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month s sales, next year s costs, or tomorrow s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage-known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects- describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along... Ver mais

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    Mais Informações The Flaw of Averages

    A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact.

    As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month s sales, next year s costs, or tomorrow s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage-known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects- describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences.

    Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader s intellect to the seat of their pants.

    "The Flaw of Averages" typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell.

    Características detalhadasThe Flaw of Averages

    • Autor Sam L. Savage
    • Editor John Wiley & Sons
    • Data de lançamento abril 2012
    • EAN 978-1118073759
    • ISBN 9781118073759
    • Dimensões 15,2 x 22,6 cm
    • Nº Páginas 416
    • Encadernação Paperback

    OUTRAS OBRAS de Sam L. Savage

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